ABSTRACT

In the last three decades the forestry sector has been given an important contribution to the economy of Indonesia, and during the period year 1993-2005, it contributed from 1.7 to 3.1 percent. To maintain this contribution, it is needed to have a continuation raw material input, Roundwood. Some studies showed that the supply of raw material for wood-based primary industries such as plywood, sawn timber, and pulp in Indonesia are still continuing. Therefore it needs to know the characteristic supply and demand of the wood-based industry by predicting the elasticity. This paper will discuss elasticity supply and demand of the input market of Roundwood from natural and plantation forests and output market of plywood, sawn timber and pulp. Data used for this study is time series, from the year 1995 until the year 2009. The estimation of the econometric model used in this study was simultaneous (2SLS) equation or ordinary least squares (OLS) if the 2SLS model is not working. Data processed by the Rats processing program. All predicted parameter then evaluated and checked in accordance with the economic theory. However, not all predicted elasticity resulted from this study were used. For those could not use that data taken from references. Demand elasticity of Roundwood from natural forests and plantation forests are mostly priced inelastic.

Keywords: wood-based industry, supply, demand, estimation of econometric models, elasticity.

ABSTRAK

Dalam tiga dekade terakhir sektor kehutanan telah memberikan kontribusi penting bagi perekonomian Indonesia, dan selama rentang waktu tahun 1993-2005, memberikan kontribusi 1.7 sampai 3.1 persen. Untuk mempertahankan nilai ini, diperlukan keberlanjutan penyediaan kebutuhan bahan baku, kayu bulat. Beberapa penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ketersediaan bahan baku bagi industri primer berbasis kayu seperti kayu lapis, kayu gergaji dan pulp di Indonesia masih berjalan. Oleh karena itu perlu untuk diketahui kharakteristik penawaran dan permintaan industri primer berbasis kayu melalui nilai penduga elastisitasnya. Penelitian ini akan membahas mengenai elastisitas penawaran dan elastisitas permintaan pasar input kayu bulat yang berasal dari hutan alam dan hutan tanaman, dan pasar output kayu lapis, kayu gergaji dan pulp. Data yang digunakan dalam rentang tahun 1995 sampai dengan tahun 2009. Model dugaan ekonometrik yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah persamaan simultan (2SLS) atau ordinary least squares (OLS) apabila 2SLS tidak dapat digunakan. Pengolahan data menggunakan program RATS. Keseluruhan nilai parameter dugaan selanjutnya dievaluasi dan diperiksa berdasarkan teori ekonomi. Namun demikian, tidak semua nilai dugaan elastisitas yang dihasilkan dalam penelitian ini digunakan. Nilai yang tidak dapat digunakan kemudian dicari nilai penggantinya yang diperoleh dari berbagai referensi. Elastisitas permintaan permintaaan kayu bulat yang berasal dari hutan alam dan hutan tanaman adalah inelastis.

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